Long-term Bitcoin holders are unmoved by contagion worries, which may postpone the arrival of a trend reversal.

Bitcoin hit a 106-week low of $15,500 on Nov. 21.

Market mood is fragile as outrage over the FTX debacle fades and the enormity of what occurred becomes clear. Worse, the exact scope of the black hole is unknown at this time.

While numerous crypto exchanges hurried to demonstrate solvency as a result of the FTX debacle, the potential of contagion remains high.

The Crypto Worry & Greed Index is now at 22 – high fear. Surprisingly, this compares favorably with the Terra explosion in June.
It had a high terror reading of 6.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are continuing to accumulate, despite contagion worries, according to on-chain Glassnode data examined by Cryptominded, despite a considerable number who are nursing losses.

Total Supply of Bitcoin Held by Long-Term Holders

The Total Supply Held by Long-Term Holders (TSHLTH) refers to BTC that has been held for more than six months. Tokens that reach this age are typically regarded as inactive and unlikely to be spent.

Short-Term Holders (STHs) are new investors with “weak hands” who are more prone to abandon the market during periods of price volatility.

The TSHLTH is now worth 13.8 million BTC.
– a record high. This accounts for around 72% of the circulating supply.

Long-Term Holders’ Total Supply in Loss

LTHs are called smart money since they tend to behave logically and rationally rather than emotionally.

According to the graphic below, nearly 6 million coins owned by LTHs are at a loss. Despite the fact that this pattern corresponds to bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2020, this is the greatest amount to date.

Long-Term Holders’ Total Supply in Loss

Glassnode.com is the source.

Long-Term Position Net Position Change

The net amount of Bitcoin entering or departing exchange wallets is referred to as the Net Change Position (NCP).

The graph below illustrates that LTHs are currently net accumulating at the
the highest rate in 2022 Although NCP flipped between accumulation and distribution in H1, net accumulation dominates in H2. This pattern is regarded as positive since LTHs continue to believe and are eager to buy despite the frightening market conditions.

Change in Long-Term Holders’ Net Position

Glassnode.com is the source.

Profit/Loss Supply

Analyzing LTHs in profit and loss indicates that 50% of LTHs are profitable at the present pricing, while 33% are losing money.

When contrasted to prior bear markets, this is one of the largest disparities, with the 2015 bear market being a significant competitor.

Usually, surrender is preceded by a fresh cycle of trend reversal. However, the evidence shown above suggests that LTHs are yet to lose, hope and concede at the present price

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Natasha Dean

With an eye for detail and understanding of this exciting industry. My experience has given me an understanding of crypto trends and how to effectively break them down. I have a soft spot for NFTs and the Metaverse.